Taking Things Seriously

The end of Humanity?

Maybe, maybe not. Read carefully and you'll see that doomsday hinges on a "small possibility" which relies on the chance that the asteroid "Apophis" will pass through a "keyhole". Here's the quote-

"Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: 'When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us.' The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information."

Apophis, by the way, is Greek for Apep, the ancient Egyptian deity of evil, darkness and chaos, and isn't to be entirely confused with Apophis, a principle bad guy in the television series Stargate SG-1. Or maybe the thing is named after a television show, in which case that's kind of cool and sad at the same time. At least it wasn't really obvious though, like the asteroid is named "Kahn" or "Zod", or something.

But anyways, I'm going to be ranting about the end of the world today. Walk with me, as I stride down the corridors of human reaction and over-reaction. Step with me through the shrubbery of millennia mania as we enjoy the smooth stylings of Gabriel and his horn, with the Four Horsemen jazz ensemble along the way.

All of this according to Ian, of course; and without the fuss for credibility that most of us enjoy from actual philosophers and social historians.

Red Tape Doesn't Stop Asteroids, But That Doesn't Mean There Won't Be Rolls Of It.

Apparently from what I gather off the article, and quick Google'ing, world governments aren't as concerned with asteroids slamming into their embassies as much as they are worried about car bombs doing it first. The only thing close to keeping the "big picture" in mind is that there's talk about the "possibility" of global warming, which could lead to us all dying off too.

But it's not like we can suddenly decide it's worth worrying about the day before it (maybe) hits us. If these scientist types are right, they might be on to something about a need to at least be prudent in preparing ourselves for the event.

And should we wait to develop such technology even if we discover Apophis isn't going to be a threat? Just because something doesn't happen doesn't mean it will never happen. Yet we also have to be realistic, and in addition to assuming we can't deflect threats from outer space, we can also assume that such threats are so far away that we can let our great-great-grandkids sort it out.

What exactly can we do if we do take action? We haven't put a man on the moon in over 30 years, and things like the Mars Rovers are the equivalent of us playing with remote controlled cars on the street corner. Can we develop technological capabilities potent enough to alter the course of spacial bodies as big as Apophis in thirty years?

What is it that is the most important thing for humanity as a whole? Unfortunately, we don't have all of our heads wired together for quick consensus, and many will argue vehemently for all sides possible. Never mind the "extinction" thing, what about the economic condition of nations that pool resources to stop it? Can we bankroll the strategy to deflect Apophis, and if not are others going to be willing to pony up the dough for the good of all? Who will be put in charge of the program to stop extinction, and will he/she be American/French/German/etc., Catholic/Jewish/Muslim/etc.? And do they have a good complexion? What if some Nations think this is all a Hoax to begin with? These things may sound "petty" considering the magnitude of the big picture, but I don't doubt that will stop people from fueling public opinion with so much muck we all slide around in it.

I Already Saw This Movie

There's a lot to think about here, but there's a good possibility that science fiction has covered a lot of the possibilities already. Whether or not it ever is credible, Science Fiction is only effective if it speaks to that part of humanity which we can sympathize with. So, in it's own way, Sci Fi reveals a lot of the human aspect of any plight, and maybe does it well.

So, if movies have taught me anything, it's that all hell will break loose if we find out extinction is near. Governments might be better off not letting you know all the facts of any situation involving humanity's fate because of this. After all, people are only controlled when they think everything is under control. If I see a damn asteroid bearing down on me, why not run that red light...why not run them all? Oh, and the IRS...who cares? I mean, my 10-40 will be used for kindling my fire in the apocalypse, not filing my joint income. This of course, is me being kind about what could happen...in true anarchy I'd probably equip a few guns and knives just to get a gallon of milk, and to protect it.

In movies and most fiction you'll see that the few save the many. It's usually a few people who overcome the odds and save us all. If there's anything to learn from this, it's that there will be a "hero" or group of "heroes" that will face the world in the name of whatever project there is that tries to stop extinction. The good money says it's a few politicians, and a handful of astronauts. And talk about good PR...those men and women could become the equivalent of Jason and the Argonauts for the 21st Century. "Famous" would be putting it lightly.

Hardly any fiction writer, aside from Douglas Adams, completely ends humanity. So if movies taught me anything it could be that mankind might survive in a spaceship set off in search of a new planet? Or maybe select few will sleep in frozen hibernation, to hopefully be reawaken after the dust settles? What any "survival" scenario usually entails is that there is a hope that although civilization can be destroyed, the power to rebuild always rests with the survivors. Or, I guess...the apes.

Apophis may occur, consult your Theologian to see if Religion^TM is right for you.

It seems that we've all been anticipating the end of the world for quite some time now, and you can look farther back than Y2K to see that it never really went out of fashion. Apparently Y1K hysteria was just as pronounced, with the church receiving huge amounts of donations from people trying to be in good favor with the church before they died. I guess Y2k wasn't so dissimilar except people were forking money over to stores for toilet paper and cans of soup.

Far from trying to criticize religion, I'm more curious on how it will react to such events should the imminent collision of an asteroid with earth be proven. Religion is seen in wars, and athletic events, why not sides in an epic battle for humanity itself? Is an asteroid the hand of God, or the challenge to prove our worth to survive into even more advanced states of civilization and technology?

Not to drag this back into movies, but those of you who've seen Contact could probably understand the complexity of Religion's role in this. From extremism to evangelism, austerity to reactionary - religion will change the landscape of this event tremendously. I imagine such an event may even effect religion as well.

It's the End Of the Post as We Know It, and I Feel Fine.

If the world is to end in 2036, I'll be 57 years old. That's kind of disappointing because in discussing this with people at work and at bars, I've told them I'd be in my forties, so my math is terrible. But I can't really complain about being 57 and seeing the end of humanity. I guess the only complaining I could do would be if I manage to finish paying off my student loans the day before Apophis hits (if it does). But there's a better chance in me paying off the loans than witnessing the end of mankind, so there you go.

At any rate, it's still 2005, and there is a long time to get things done. Go ahead and fix the fixer-upper, clean the attic, finish that novel, and dot those I's. If the end comes any sooner we certainly can't do anything about it now, so we might as well live like there still is a tomorrow.

-ic

Although he probably regrets it, special thanks to Aaron for sending me the Guardian article!